来源：观察者网

古希腊著名历史学家、《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》作者修昔底德认为，一个大国的崛起往往伴随着一场与原有大国之间你死我活的战争。雅典和斯巴达的战争之所以最终变得不可避免，就是因为雅典实力的增长，以及这种增长在斯巴达所引起的恐惧。这就是人们一直担忧的“修昔底德陷阱”。

美国哈佛大学学者最近研究也表明，自1500年以来，15次大国权力转移中，有11次是以战争为结局的。

中国的迅速发展和中华民族的伟大复兴为什么能超越“修昔底德陷阱”的历史宿命？新兴的中国与当今世界唯一超级大国美国为什么有可能避免一场全面摊牌的战争较量？

这并不只是中国单方面的良好愿望，也绝非美国霸权的仁慈与善心，而是时代条件的重大变化，使得中美力量对比的转换有可能是和平的，而且必须是和平的。

彭光谦少将

当代有两个现实是以前没有过的：第一个重大的现实是，与以往的大国相互隔绝、相互对立的关系不同，全球化的深入发展，各个国家的利益特别是大国间的利益相互依存度越来越高，全球越来越成为一个命运共同体，各国的生存与发展是相互连在一起、密切相关的。一荣不一定俱荣，但一损肯定俱损。

中国的发展尽管引起美国对霸权旁落的恐惧，但同时，美国又把走出经济危机的希望寄托在中国的大市场上。美国国防部前助理国防部长、著名学者约瑟夫·奈最近撰文指出，应以“正和”而非“零和”方式看待当代实力的增长，换句话说，“中国的实力增长或许是有利于美国和全球的”。美国霸权的衰落决不是中国引起的，正如英国学者汤因比所指出的，“帝国的衰落来自于对外的过度扩张和社会内部扭曲的扩大。”中国的发展并不挑战美国，甚至还为美国霸权的软着陆争取了必要的时间与空间。

中国版习奥会，习近平与奥巴马取得27项成果和共识

当代第二个重大的现实是，由于科学技术的发展、战争手段的发展已经超过了战争目的的需要。军事手段的效用正在下降。美国作为当代军事超级大国拥有世界上规模最为庞大的战争机器，仅美国储存的大规模毁灭性武器，就足以毁灭人类几十次，而人类只要毁灭一次就够了。

尽管中美之间存在不小的军事差距，但是中国现有的现代化国防力量和战略反击能力，足以对任何武力危害中国国家安全和核心利益的侵略者予以等效的毁灭性还击。拥有超饱和、超杀伤军事手段的美国并不能保证自己在毁灭别人的同时，避免自己的毁灭，或者避免不可承受的战争后果。可以说，中美之间的全面战争不会有胜利者。中国的发展进程固然会因此受到严重冲击，但美国霸权从此走入历史则是毫无疑问的。这肯定不是美国所要的结果。

中国的发展和民族的复兴是任何力量都阻挡不了的。未来中国还会继续提升自己的实力，把中国人的命运永远掌握在中国人自己手里。但中国实力的发展并不威胁任何人和挑战任何人。中国没有兴趣也没有必要跟美国争夺什么霸权或领导权。中国只是要复兴中华民族，告别近代的屈辱史，成为一个真正的国家富强、民族繁荣、人民幸福的国家。美国对中国力量的发展和民族复兴的疑虑完全是多余的。

只要放弃历史的偏见，宽阔的太平洋就展现在你的面前。中美两个伟大国家和两个伟大民族完全有理由避免狭路相逢，避免大国对抗的历史宿命，共同走向双赢。当然这需要双方有理智、有远见的健康力量的艰苦努力，仅有中国的一只翅膀是飞不起来的。

《赫芬顿邮报》刊载彭光谦少将文章

英文原版 

A Chinese General's View on Whether China Is a Challenge to America

According to Thucydides, an Ancient Greek historian and author of "History of the Peloponnesian War," the rise of a big power is usually accompanied by a mortal war against the ruling power. It was the rise of Athenian power and the fear it inspired in Sparta that ultimately made the Peloponnesian War inevitable. That is the "Thucydides' Trap" people have been worrying about.

Recent studies by Harvard University scholars also indicate that since 1500, 11 of 15 cases of power transition between rising and ruling powers ended in war.

Why will China's rapid progress and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation transcend the historical fatalism of the "Thucydides' Trap"? Why is it possible for rising China and the present-day world's sole superpower, the United States, to avoid an all-round showdown in the form of war?

This is not the outcome of China's one-sided benign wishes. Nor is it the outcome of the mercy and benevolence of the hegemonic United States. The essential changes in the conditions of our time make it possible for the transition of power between China and U.S. to be peaceful. And it has to be peaceful.

NEW REALITIES

There are two unprecedented realities in our time: The first significant reality is that, in contrast to the mutually isolating and antagonistic relations between big powers in the past, globalization has deepened the mutual interests of countries. This is particularly true of those of the major powers which are increasingly interdependent.

The global village is increasingly becoming a community of common destiny. The development of all countries are closely interconnected. One country's gain may not necessarily be others.' But one country's loss will definitely not just be its own.

Though China's progress has inspired fear of the decline of American hegemony, the United States has at the same time pinned its hopes on China's tremendous market in order to escape its economic crisis.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs and famous scholar Joseph Nye wrote in a recent article that the increase in contemporary power should be looked at from a "positive sum", rather than "zero sum," perspective. "There may be times when a more powerful China is good for the U.S. (and for the world)," he wrote.

CHINA NOT CAUSING US DECLINE

The decline of American hegemony is definitely not caused by China. Just as British scholar Arnold Toynbee pointed out, the decline of an empire derives from its excessive outward expansion and worsening internal troubles. Instead of a challenge to the United States, China's development is winning both time and space necessary for the soft-landing of American hegemony.

WAR IS USELESS

The second significant reality of our time is that, thanks to scientific and technological progress, the development of means of war has surpassed the purpose of war. The efficacy of war is on the decline.

As a military superpower, the United States has world's largest war apparatus. America's stock of weapons of mass destruction alone suffices to destroy humanity dozens of times. And once is enough to annihilate us all.

Despite the considerable gap between Chinese and U.S. militaries, China's existing defense forces and strategic counterstrike capabilities suffice for equivalent destructive counterattacks against any aggressor that seeks to harm its national security and core interests by force.

In spite of its military superiority, the United States has no guarantee that it can escape destruction or unaffordable consequences when attempting to destroy others. It is safe to say there will be no winner in an all-round war between China and the United States.

China's ascent would surely suffer a severe blow. But it will also be out of question that American hegemony will become a thing of the past. This certainly is not the outcome the Americans want.

Nothing can hold back China's advancement and the nation's rejuvenation. China will continue to grow stronger. But the increase in China's strength constitutes no threat or challenge to any country.

China has neither the interest, nor the need, to fight the United States for hegemony or leadership. China just wants to realize its dream of national rejuvenation, bid farewell to its humiliating modern history, and truly become a country of national strength with harmonious ethnic relations and a happy and content populace.

American suspicions over a stronger China are thus unwarranted. As long as one can abandon historical biases, the mutual opportunities of the broad Pacific can be seen right before one's eyes. The great countries and nations of China and the United States have every reason to avoid facing each other on a collision course, escape the historical fatalism of confrontation between big powers, and to maneuver a win-win scenario together.

Of course, this entails strenuous endeavors by the cool-headed and far-sighted healthy forces on both sides. The Chinese wings of goodwill calls for an American counterpart to fly high.

Peng Guangqian is a Major General and Deputy Secretary-General of China's National Security Forum.

This piece also appeared on China US Focus.